Is this some kind of crazy effect of Global warming?

This year alone two cyclones hit us, forcing the government to declare a state of emergency. Then our neighboring islanders have to evacuate their island before a given date due to the rise in sea level, after that we received tsunami warnings, one after the other, but fortunately, it misses us, striking samoa etc. Now we are experiencing earthquakes, but whats worse? before the sun sets, the temperature has already fallen to 20 dec. and still decreasing. We have no factories to ruin the environment, all foods are from the plantation, and still we are going to receive the negative effects caused by larger islands???? tis is crazy!!
Im guessing youre in the South Pacific Islands, this is a part of the world that is facing threats from global warming in the form of rising sea-levels and coral bleaching.



As youll know, many of the coastlines are gentle inclines that run down to the sea, this means that only a small rise in sea-levels is needed for the sea to progress further inland. The good news is that the overall rise in the SPI is less than the global average its about 2mm a year compared to the average of 3mm.



However, with many low lying communities, the prospects over the next 100 to 300 years arent looking too promising.



You mentioned about the cyclones. One of the consequences of a warmer climate is that storms will increase, primarily because the heat in the oceans and the atmosphere provides the energy needed to fuel these storms. With or without global warming, there would have been cyclones anyway so its not possible to say that such and such a storm was the result of global warming.



Instead however, we can look at the long term trends and see if theres a link between temperatures and the number of storms. This is something Ive been working on for 4 years now and this has involved the analysis of 44,000 storms. The work on the Atlantic hurricanes has reached a preliminary conclusion, there is no reason to suspect that the analysis of typhoons, cyclones etc will provide a different conclusion.



The findings are complex and there are some as yet unexplained anomalies. In general what weve found is in line with other similar studies, the key points being that the overall number of storms has increased and looks likely to continue to do so.



Any sudden rise in sea-levels would be attributable to several factors including the alignments of the Sun, Earth and the Moon, air-pressure in the surrounding areas, wind speeds and direction and the proximity to perihelion and aphelion.



This last factor doesnt apply as its the wrong time of year. In fact, around this time of year tides are lower because the gravitational effect of the Sun is less.



In referring to islands being evacuated Im wondering if this is the Carteret Islands, the evacuation process has begun and the inhabitants are being moved to the Papuan New Guinean mainland. In time other SPIs will follow suit.



The earthquakes are almost certainly not linked to climate change, there is no short-term mechanism that would allow such a thing to happen. Climate change may act as a trigger and cause an earthquake to happen marginally sooner than it would have done otherwise but not be the actual cause.



Similarly, any rapid decline in temperature is the result of local weather conditions, a look at some local weather maps should highlight the causes.



One of the unfortunate consequences of living in the SPIs or in places such as Africa and Asia, is that its these places that are feeling the worst impacts of climate change and will continue to do so into the future. Something of a travesty considering that the places that have contributed the least to global warming are the ones that are suffering the consequences the most.
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Sure indicator: Have the rum factories stop production.
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